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Writing

What actually changed,
and what it costs.

Two Budget reforms are now sitting on top of each other for anyone holding property, and Payday Super changed how every agency pays its staff. Here is the plain version of each, written by the person who has to lodge it.

Tax and compliance

Where the rules changed, and the date it happens.

Property · CGT · 1 July 2027 26 August 2026 · 5 min read

Renovated your rental? The ATO's free formula might be quietly taxing you at the higher rate

Two separate reforms from the same Budget now interact. Every property held across 1 July 2027 is treated as sold and reacquired at that day's market value — and the ATO's free apportionment formula assumes steady growth, which is exactly what a renovation is not. The formula understates a renovated property's value, pushing more of the eventual gain into the bucket with no discount at all. Includes flow charts for both tests.

Payday Super · Payroll 15 August 2026 · 2 min read

Payday Super removed a cash buffer most businesses were quietly using

Since 1 July 2026, superannuation must reach staff at the same time as their wages rather than quarterly. For any business that had been using that 90-day gap to smooth cash flow through slow months, the buffer is permanently gone — and a missed payment is now visible to the ATO immediately.

Negative gearing · Investors 24 August 2026 · 4 min read

Negative gearing was quarantined, not abolished — the difference matters

From 1 July 2027, a rental loss on an established property bought after Budget night can no longer offset salary. It is not lost — it is set aside, usable against other rental income or a future capital gain. Three categories, one cutoff date, and one exemption that most coverage skipped.

Longer analysis

Written for real estate agency principals through Peer Group Advisory — the advisory side of the same firm. Four parts on one argument: what is holding this market back is credit and serviceability, not tax.

Read in order. Each part builds on the one before it, and the last two are the ones that matter if you borrow against a house — which, on RBA figures, is roughly half of all small business lending in Australia.

Part 2 · 31 Aug

32% was the Optimistic Number

Rents are bounded by what households can pay, and the rate assumption underneath that figure has moved. A third outcome nobody models: the market freezes rather than clears.

Part 3 · 1 Sep

The Price Floor Has a Postcode Problem

Replacement cost is a supply-side floor. A developer's spreadsheet has never cleared a transaction — a bank's serviceability calculation does.

Part 4 · 2 Sep

Ten Per Cent Won't Do It

Run a full 10% correction to completion and the Brisbane house yield moves from about 3.2% to 3.6%. An investor needs roughly 5.15%.

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